Potential Superpowers of the 21st Century

[Noblesse Oblige]

I've was debating (or well, trying to get our points across) with Cassino on MSN, about Russia and China possibly being a superpower this century. Now, I believe that these two countries have a greater chance of wielding the same power that the British wielded in the 19th century, and both the United States and the Soviet Union did in the 20th century (and in the former's case, still wields to this day). At least they have a greater chance than the other 3 candidates (India, Europe and Brazil)

Now, I want to ask, which of these nations (if not both or neither) have the likeliest chance of being a superpower and why. I'll go first:

I think that both Russia and China have a good chance of joining (or replacing, depending on where the U.S. is heading) as a worldwide superpower.

China has the advantage in terms of economic power, being practically the only country to actually make an increase in a recession. Now while they are expanding their military (mainly naval and air units) to project their interests, I think their innovative capabilities is what I question at this point. They do show influence in East Asia, Africa and Latin America.

For Russia, of which its government has only been in existance for nearly 2 decades now, it has been shown that military innovation capability, while not at the same level as it has been in the era of the Soviet Union (and probably never will be at that level) has improved from say 1994. Corruption has lessened as well, and in my honest opinion, while the Mafiya still shows some influence in the government, their grip has weakened considerably. It's basically whether they can now regain their influence in the former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact nations.

 

[Channizard]

I think Canada has a better chance tbh.

But rly now, wasn't it China who recently discovered how to control their weather? I cant recall exactly, but they had found some way to stop the rain from falling (can't recall however if they found a way to make it rain on command). Or was this Japan?

Either way, this is a huge development in 'technology' and would certainly be a powerful ability in being the next Superpower of our century.

Now with Russia they've been fairly quiet recently, whether they're developing something huge to come out with a bang, they haven't done anything dramatic since Sputnik and all that cloak and dagger Russian Spy.

 

[SaShman]

I won't comment on Russia at the moment. But I think China and India have great chances at becoming superpowers. China is at an advantage economically. However, India has economical power but is also at an advantage because of it's geographical location.

In 2005, the Bush administration announced that the US planned to help India become a world power in the 21st century. Even though Bush is not in power anymore, this still reflects that the US is concerned with the South Asian region.

I think this is because relations between the US and China aren't that great. So the US wishes to create a counterbalancing force within South Asia which can prevent China from becoming a dominant force in that region. India is a good a choice for this because it is a rising power and it sees China as it's primary threat.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I think Canada has a better chance tbh.

I lol'd

But rly now, wasn't it China who recently discovered how to control their weather? I cant recall exactly, but they had found some way to stop the rain from falling (can't recall however if they found a way to make it rain on command). Or was this Japan?

Either way, this is a huge development in 'technology' and would certainly be a powerful ability in being the next Superpower of our century.

Now with Russia they've been fairly quiet recently, whether they're developing something huge to come out with a bang, they haven't done anything dramatic since Sputnik and all that cloak and dagger Russian Spy.

Firstly, I think it was either or in that matter. But if this is what China is capable of, then they are indeed being more public of their inventions and technological/innovational capacities.

Russia has only been quiet recently, I think the last I've heard of them was the first flight of their newest 5th Generation fighter jet, the PAK FA (which is to be released by around 2015-2020), but otherwise, they aren't as public of technological innovations as China or the U.S. (then again, considering that many people live in the U.S. that is to be expected)

I won't comment on Russia at the moment. But I think China and India have great chances at becoming superpowers. China is at an advantage economically. However, India has economical power but is also at an advantage because of it's geographical location.

In 2005, the Bush administration announced that the US planned to help India become a world power in the 21st century. Even though Bush is not in power anymore, this still reflects that the US is concerned with the South Asian region.

I think this is because relations between the US and China aren't that great. So the US wishes to create a counterbalancing force within South Asia which can prevent China from becoming a dominant force in that region. India is a good a choice for this because it is a rising power and it sees China as it's primary threat.

India has a lesser chance of being a superpower. While the U.S. is primarily supporting India in an attempt for it to become a great power at most i because of the threat of China's rise, it is true. Both America and India fear the Chinese rise in power, but India has problems of it's own, mainly with an unstable Pakistan to the west, Kashmiri Seperatists to the north, Pro-Autonomy/Pro-Independence Insurgents in the Northeast (bording Bengladesh and Myanmar) and Maoist Naxalites in Central and South India, basically with the exception of the area around the Capital and West India, the country is being attacked by insurgents.

 

[Donald Trump]

Now with Russia they've been fairly quiet recently, whether they're developing something huge to come out with a bang, they haven't done anything dramatic since Sputnik and all that cloak and dagger Russian Spy.

What?
Russia fought a war with Georgia only two years ago.
I don't see what point you're trying to make.

Firstly I don't think that any country will ever have the same power/status as England/Britain did up until the end of WW1. They were the clear superpower, the global hegemon etc etc.

I don't think Russia will ever be a superpower again. It's never wise to underestimate the Russians, but their military power is not assured, certainly in terms conventional forces. Quite a few people see them as a paper tiger. It's hardly a democratic country, there's no history of democracy, and their leader is a guy from the KGB/FSB who is affectionately known as the butcher of Grozny. It's so large that it's hard to organise anything and the industry is run and owned by a few oligarchs.
The idea that they'd have any kind of influence in the Warsaw Pact countries seems extremely unlikely. Russia did spend the last half of the 20th Century oppressing them. Most of them are different ethnicities, and the Yugoslav war and the Kosova war haven't helped the cause of pan-slavism.

I think China is in a far more powerful position. They have a stronger economy and it's a command economy so it's far more stable than a free market one. They also have a population almost ten times larger.

I don't think arms will have much to do with determining who will be a superpower. I think economic power is far more important that military power.

 

[Rasputin]

Whatever country engages in the most wars is likely to spend more on the military. Whoever spends an inordinate amount on the military is likely to become a superpower. I just don't see Russia headed towards and large scale military conflicts the way China may eventually do with Taiwan and North Korea. Hence China and the US are likely to be the major superpowers 20-30 years down the line.

 

[SaShman]

Whoever spends an inordinate amount on the military is likely to become a superpower.

Not really. The nuclear age has changed the whole "my army is better than yours" mentality. Plus there are many types of influence besides military might. Look at Japan, the Japanese constitution essentially denies their right to go to war. But they still have considerable influence because of their economy.

There are also powerful non-state actors which need to be considered. Military might is still relevant but it's not the most important thing in the modern world.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

Hal and SaShman are right on this one, while military power is still relevant, there is more to it than just how much weapons you have. The Economy also shows much relevance if not greater. It is because of Economic power that Brazil, India and the EU are considered potential superpowers.

 

[Saints&Storms]

Now with Russia they've been fairly quiet recently, whether they're developing something huge to come out with a bang, they haven't done anything dramatic since Sputnik and all that cloak and dagger Russian Spy.

I have to agree with this right here, Although I think both equally -- to be honest. But I lean juts a bit to Russia.

 

[Altair]

I think that China is already a Superpower for the following reasons.
They are one of the Five permanant members in the UN Security Council.
They have Nuclear weapons and the World trusts them to use them responsibly.
China's economy is thriving while the rest of the world struggles to recover.
China and the US are neck and neck with technology.
The wives of Chinese men support them having a mistress so they can concentrate on work (don't ask me how that works)
China's elementary and secondary schools are the best in the world.
They have the most scientists and mathmeticians per capita out of any nation in the world.