Situation in Iran

[Sir Kenneth]

Anyone else been following the post election demonstrations in Iran in support of Mousavi? A lot has happened in this last week or so, and due to western journalists getting the boot, it's hard to get an exact picture of the situation. Some of the stuff that has got out on facebook and twitter is downright shocking though. Demonstrants being shot by the Basij and the IRG, and the government using acid or boiling water launched from helicopters as means of crowd control. I hope that Ahmadinejad and his goons will buckle under the pressure, and we'll see a new more moderate leader in Mousavi. That would be a giant leap towards stabilizing the political situation in the middle-east.

Also, I never thought I'd ever say this, but I miss George Dubya Bush right now. In spite of all his shortcomings, he would have given the protesters his support from day one. Obama however is staying neutral while Iranians are dying in the streets for the sake of democracy. I'm not impressed with your performance Mr. President.
Of course one should always be careful with getting involved in the domestic disputes of other countries, but this is just ridiculous. I doubt anyone expects a full scale invasion in support of the protesters, but strong verbal support and political pressure on Ahmadinejad's regime would probably go a long way. Too bad he doesn't have the balls.

 

[Donald Trump]

Anyone else been following the post election demonstrations in Iran in support of Mousavi? A lot has happened in this last week or so, and due to western journalists getting the boot, it's hard to get an exact picture of the situation. Some of the stuff that has got out on facebook and twitter is downright shocking though. Demonstrants being shot by the Basij and the IRG, and the government using acid or boiling water launched from helicopters as means of crowd control. I hope that Ahmadinejad and his goons will buckle under the pressure, and we'll see a new more moderate leader in Mousavi. That would be a giant leap towards stabilizing the political situation in the middle-east.

Firstly Iran is not a democracy, in theory it's a theocracy and a democracy, in practise it's a theocracy. The role of president is a lot closer to that of a figurehead than anything else.
Iran is a stable country, the only time when it wasn't, was when they overthrew the Shah, who was installed bu the US. I think the US got out of that very lightly, if someone installed a dictator in my country, I'd want blood. However that's neither here nor there.
Also Ahmadinejad isn't a bad leader. I personally find him very amusing, that being said, the main criticism of him is his anti-Israeli rhetoric. Which is nothing new, quite a few Middle Eastern leaders have done it, Nasser did famously. It's his version of Obama's hope and change shit, he's playing for his audience. He says Israel should be crushed, Western Nations massively overreact and just baww.
As Mousavi isn't going to have any power, he's not going to stabilise the region.
Plus there's whole Nuclear issue. Israel is almost certain to have nuclear weapons, although they'd never say as much, and the US, Israel's number one best buddy certainly does. Some kind of parity may ironically bring stability (MAD).

Also, I never thought I'd ever say this, but I miss George Dubya Bush right now. In spite of all his shortcomings, he would have given the protesters his support from day one. Obama however is staying neutral while Iranians are dying in the streets for the sake of democracy. I'm not impressed with your performance Mr. President.
Of course one should always be careful with getting involved in the domestic disputes of other countries, but this is just ridiculous. I doubt anyone expects a full scale invasion in support of the protesters, but strong verbal support and political pressure on Ahmadinejad's regime would probably go a long way. Too bad he doesn't have the balls.

I don't think the US can afford to alienate a regional power, especially the power next to Iraq.
Given Bush's dodgy record with votes, his and the US' with interfering in other countries, they'd be quite rightly told to fuck off.
It would also make the regional more unstable.
And as they're not dying for democracy, what would be the point?
Also as no political pressure can be exerted upon Mahmoud, how exactly would you punish him. Some hollow rhetoric that would weaken Obama's position?

 

[Sir Kenneth]

People ARE dying for democracy in Iran. They are protesting for the theocratical rulers to acknowledge their votes. It might not be democracy in the modern western sense of the word, and Mousavi might not be that different from Ahmadinejad at some points, but it is still a showdown with the supreme leader who's usually had his way when it comes to Presidents. As small a step as it is, it is still a step towards a more democratic Iran and a more stable situation in the middle-east.

Saying that the Iranian President is without power is not entirely correct though. The foreign policy, armed forces, and nuclear policy is under control of the supreme leader, but as head of the Council of Cultural Revolution and Council of National Security, the President is responsible for determining defense and nuclear politics of Iran. Of course he can still be veto'ed by the supreme leader, but he is far from just a figurehead.

As far as the relationship with Ahmadinejad and his administration goes, I doubt that staying out of things is going to improve things. You said it yourself: The man is a loony toon with a two-faced rhetoric, calling for negotiations one day, and condemning the next. In order for the USA and the rest of the west to establish a constructive dialogue with Iran, the country needs a new leader. Obama's reconciliatory attitude towards Ahmadinejad and other crazy people, likely isn't going to get him anywhere.

As far as political pressure goes, some American conservatives have called out for more sanctions against Iran if the violence against the peaceful protesters doesn't stop. I believe this would be an appropriate course of action.